service to curate and collate my news. Reading through the last few months, I realized that there are so many subjects worthy of comment that a single post wouldn't begin to address them meaningfully. I reserve in-depth analysis of specific trend or topic for my paying clients, so I decided to review and comment on press clippings and announcements as they become available as a way to illustrate the trends, threats and opportunities surrounding our market.
Here is what caught my attention in the last quarter:
Technology: Is 4K the new 3D?
April of course is synonymous with NAB frenzy. Sifting through the trough of announcements at the show, I have noticed a sharp change of direction in vendor’s announcements and claims from last year. When 2013 was all about HEVC H.265, this year seems to be about 4K. While HEVC licensing terms have been agreed and announced by MPEGLA in February, Google’s royalty-free VP9 has captured some support as well, forcing chipset and platform vendors to contemplate fragmentation and multi codec support. Obviously, the battle for codec and protocol will determine who controls the management and delivery of 4K content going forward. In this race, not surprisingly, YouTube is siding with its parent company with VP9 support, while Netflix is adopting H.265. Both companies agree though, and are adamant, that 4K is a lot easier to manage and deliver for OTT properties than for traditional broadcasting payTV providers. Netflix forecasts mass market for 4K to be five years out at the current rate of TV replacements. My opinion is that 4K adoption will suffer from H265/VP9 fragmentation. We will probably see further delays because of the cost of implementing dual protocol stack throughout the delivery chain.
Technology: Cloud, SDN, NFV
At NAB as well, vendors were eager to show off their new acronyms, touting dreams of cloud-based virtualized, self-managed, software-defined networks that would… In reality, most MSOs are still focusing on rolling out HD, improving and automatizing workflows and overall costs reduction. I think we still have 5 years to go before seeing practical, mature implementation of SDN in professional video. Anything else is a science experiment or a proprietary implementation at this point.
Business: MSO to OTT
One of the big news was the announcement from AT&T regarding their intent to invest, jointly with the Chernin Group up to $500million to create SVOD and advertising based web streaming services. Umm... Is it too much or not enough? $500 million goes a long way if you want to build a web streaming service, but it does not seem nearly enough if you want to build an attractive content offering.
HBO, the next day was reported to have signed a multi-year agreement with Amazon. The deal should see some of HBO’s back catalogue series made available to Amazon Prime subscribers. Little by little, HBO nudges the boundaries. You will remember that it signed a deal with Comcast last year to offer HBO Go to Comcast broadband subscribers, without a cable subscription. All signs point that HBO could be a major league OTT provider when they will be ready to cross over.
Business: OTT to Wireless
Almost coincidentally, rumours emerged that Netflix was in discussions with the Vodafone Group to distribute Netflix services on some Vodafone subscriptions. It is likely that these deals will increase in frequency. LTE /4G will see opportunities for cord-never and cord-shavers to access their favourite service and content on cellular networks. That is… if they figure out the charging model (paying 8$ a month for Netflix and $150 in data overage charge to Vodafone wouldn't really work).
Business: OTT to MSO
Netflix has integrated its offering on Atlantic Broadband, Grande Communication and RCN Telecom services set-top boxes, a first in the US after having piloted the concept in Europe. Subscribers will be able to select the service from their PayTV provider. It is an interesting strategy for small MSOs to bundle Netflix in hybrid Set top boxes. It increases reach, provides an attractive offering and good differentiation against market leaders.
Kaltura bought TVinci to expand its SVOD offering to live and linear programming. Arris bought SeaWell Networks for its advertising insertion and packaging at the edge technology. SeaWell Networks’ strong adaptive bit rate streaming skill set will be invaluable to expand the company’s multiscreen strategy.
That’s all folks for this quarter! I will keep all the good net neutrality commentary for next month, hopefully when the smoke dissipates from the PR battlefield.